Assessment of Recent Changes in Dust over South Asia Using RegCM4 Regional Climate Model

Pre-monsoon dust aerosols over Indian regions are closely linked to the monsoon dynamics and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Past observational studies have shown a decline in dust loading over the Indian landmass potentially caused by changing rainfall patterns over the desert regions. Such changes are expected to have a far-reaching impact on regional energy balance and monsoon rainfall. Using a regional climate-chemistry model, RegCM4.5, with an updated land module, we have simulated the long-term (2001-2015) changes in dust over the arid and semi-arid dust source regions of the North-Western part of the subcontinent. It is found that the area-averaged dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the arid and semi-arid desert regions has declined by 17% since the start of this millennium. The rainfall over these regions exhibits a positive trend of 0.1 mm day(-1)year(-1) and a net increase of > 50%. The wet deposition is found to be dominant and ~five-fold larger in magnitude over dry deposition and exhibits total changes of ~79 and 48% in the trends in atmospheric dust. As a response, a significant difference in the surface (11%), top of the atmosphere radiative forcing (7%), and widespread atmospheric cooling are observed in the short wave domain of radiation spectrum over the Northern part of the Indian landmass. Such quantification and long-term change studies are necessary for understanding regional climate change and the water cycle.