A quiet extirpation of the breeding little auk Alle alle population in Iceland in the shadow of the famous cousin extermination

The little auk Alle alle is an Arctic seabird breeding in the North Atlantic. Its southernmost breeding population in the Low Arctic occurred in Iceland but started to decline in numbers at the beginning of the 20th century ending in extirpation at the end of the same century. Climate warming has been blamed for the disappearance of this population. However, it was also exploited by humans (mainly for eggs). Thus, it is unclear what was the main driver for the population collapse. In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in relation to changes in environmental conditions, and perform stochastic modelling of population viability considering various scenarios including presence/absence of climate warming and/or egg harvest. We found that extirpation of the studied population was attributed to synergistic effects of both climate warming and human harvest. The simulations revealed that climate warming without harvest would cause a 71% decline in population size but not lead to extirpation. Models with climate warming and egg harvesting resulted in population estimates close to the real data (decrease from 400 individuals in 1903 to 2 in 1996). This is one of the few studies documenting synergistic effect of climate warming and human exploitation on extirpation. A strong harvesting component in the explanation for the decline of the study population emphasizes the continuing need to control commercial harvest of animal species in the face of other pressures such as climate warming.