Establishment and validation of a prediction model for intraparenchymal hematoma expansion in patients with cerebral contusion: A reliable Nomogram

Background and objective: Cerebral Contusion (CC) is one of the most serious injury types in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Traumatic intraparenchymal hematoma (TICH) expansion severely affects the patient's prognosis. In this study, the baseline data, imaging features, and laboratory examinations of patients with CC were summarized and analyzed to develop and validate a nomogram predictive model assessing the risk factors for TICH expansion. Methods: Totally 258 patients were included and retrospectively analyzed herein, who met the CC inclusion criteria, from July 2018 to July 2021. TICH expansion was defined as increased hematoma volume > 30% relative to primary volume or an absolute hematoma increase > 5 ml at CT review. Results: Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to screen out the independent predictors significantly correlated with TICH expansion: Age, subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion site, multihematoma fuzzy sign (MFS), contusion volume, and traumatic coagulation abnormalities (TCA). Based on these, the nomogram model was established. The differences between the contusion volume and glasgow outcome scale (GOS) were analyzed by the nonparametric tests. Larger contusion volume was associated with poor prognosis. Conclusion: This study established a Nomogram model to predict TICH expansion in patients with CC. Meanwhile, the study found that the risk of bleeding tended to decrease when the hematoma volume was > 15 ml, but the larger initial hematoma volume would indicate worse prognosis. We advocate the use of predictive models for TICH expansion risk assessment in hospitalized CC patients, which is low-cost and easy-to-apply, especially in acute settings.