Predictive risk-score model for selection of patients with high-risk stage II colon cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy

Background: Adjuvant systemic therapy is selectively considered for high-risk stage II colon cancer, but which patients benefit most from adjuvant systemic therapy is unclear. Methods: Patients who underwent resection of stage II colon cancer were identified from the National Cancer Database (2010-2016). Risk-factors for decreased overall survival on multivariable analysis were used to establish a predictive risk-score model for all-cause mortality. After propensity matching within each risk group, 5-year overall survival was estimated based on receipt of adjuvant systemic therapy. Results: Of the 15,241 patients evaluated, 2,857 (18.8%) received adjuvant systemic therapy. Risk factors for decreased overall survival included age .001), White/Black race (hazard ratio 1.4, P = .020), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen 3.5 ng/mL (hazard ratio 1.6, P < .001), T4a T-stage (hazard ratio 2.0, P < .001), T4b T-stage (hazard ratio 2.4, P < .001), lymphovascular invasion (hazard ratio 1.2, P = .003), perineural invasion (hazard ratio 1.3, P = .003), and non-R0 proximal/distal resection margins (hazard ratio 1.7, P < .001). An internally validated risk-score model using these factors was developed composed of low-risk (n = 8,489), moderate-risk (n = 4,623), and high-risk (n = 2,129) groups; within each group, 19.9%, 15.7%, and 20.8% of patients, respectively, received adjuvant systemic therapy. After propensity matching, adjuvant systemic therapy was not associated with improved 5-year overall survival for low-risk patients (89.8% vs 88.3%, P = .280), but was for moderate-risk (80.5% vs 70.8%, P < .001), and high-risk (65.2% vs 45.7%, P < .001) patients. Conclusion: A predictive risk-score model incorporating patient and tumor factors identifies a high-risk cohort of stage II colon cancer patients who may benefit from adjuvant systemic therapy, although the minority of these patients appear to be receiving treatment. (C) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.