Balances of federal transfers in SUS: what we have and what to expect from the COVID-19 increment

We analyzed the balances from the transfers from the Ministry of Health (MH) to subnational entities, to finance the Unified Health System (SUS), including for COVID-19. We verified the representativeness of these in relation to the transfers from the MH to public health actions and services, between 2019and 2020. We analyzed the MH ordinances that gave rise to the COVID-19 transfers, classifying them as: quantity; object; apportionment criterion; amount of installments; execution linked to MH strategies; value. More than 70.000 current accounts were accounted for, and some sub national entities had more than 100. In 2019, balances reached R$16.29 billion (annual increase of 10.2%), representing 19.9% of the total transferred. In 2020, they reached R$23.83 billion (an increase of 46.3%), representing 21.1% of all transfers, with a monthly trend of continued growth. More than 616 ordinances, with 28 different objectives, transferred R$32.30 billion to COVID-19. The resource, originally freely available, had R$11.88 billion (36.8%) linked to the strategies of the MH: R$1.36 billion (99.9%) linked to the Structuring Block, and R$10.52 billion (34.0%) linked to the Maintenance Block. There are several causes that give rise to the accumulation of balances, however the quality, quantity and complexity of the SUS normative framework strongly contribute to an execution of resources that is not very fast, effective, efficient and useful.