Selectively recommend 18 F-FDG PET/CT for patients with de novo nasopharyngeal carcinoma in endemic areas

Introduction To identify the subset of patients with de novo nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) for whom [ 18 F] fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography ( 18 F-FDG PET/CT) should be recommended, and to determine whether PET/CT is a cost-effective decision for precise M staging in endemic areas. Materials and methods Retrospective analysis of data of 4469 patients diagnosed with de novo NPC between January 2014 and December 2019. The detection rate of distant metastasis was compared between different groups. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the risk factors for distant metastasis. The cost-effectiveness of the diagnostic strategies was assessed. Results The detection rate of distant metastasis in the whole cohort was 5.46%. In multivariate analysis, male sex, T3-4 stage, N2-3 stage, and high plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA (≥ 14,650 copies/mL) were risk factors for distant metastases. NPC patients with T3-4 stage combined with N2-3 stage, high EBV DNA combined with male sex, or N2-3 stage combined with high EBV DNA were defined as recommended group with relatively higher tendency for metastasis. Distant metastasis incidence in recommended group and unrecommended group were 10.25% and 1.75%, respectively ( P < 0.001). In the recommended group, PET/CT significantly improved the detection rate of distant metastasis (13.25% vs 9.02%, P = 0.005). Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that additional cost for every one percent increase in distant metastasis detection rate was $22,785.58 in the recommended group (< Willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $32,700.00) and $310,912.90 in the unrecommended group. Conclusions In patients with de novo NPC, the tendency for metastasis can be predicted based on clinical parameters. 18 F-FDG PET/CT should be selectively recommended for the subset of patients with a relatively higher tendency for metastasis.