Anticipating The Next Technology The Study Of The 800-Year Evolution In Small Armsthis Case Study Of Armaments Presents A Generalizable Model And Shows How Companies Can Create A Quantitative View Of Future Capabilities To Make Long-Term R&D Investment Decisions.

Overview: Moore's Law has driven innovation in computing for decades by providing a future target and set of expectations that drives innovation. In this paper, we study whether a similar law might be developed and prove useful in different fields-for example, in armaments. We find that it can be, if we develop a composite measure that incorporates several dimensions of merit. We call this a figure of regularity (FoR). We use this case study of armaments to develop a generalizable model and find that it fits well with historical data. We then apply the model to estimate expected capabilities that will be required in 2050. A similar approach can be used in other industries to create a quantitative view of future capabilities, which companies can use to make long-term R&D investment decisions.