Climate Change Implications For Asphalt Binder Selection In Pavement Construction Across Ontario

The climate in Canada has warmed and will continue to warm faster in the future, which will result in more intense and frequent temperature variations. Asphalt binder selection based on the Superpave performance grade (PG) system relies on historic climatic conditions in relation to the expected in-service temperature range of the flexible pavement. In view of climate change, it is crucial to investigate the extent to which pavement surface temperatures will be affected by ambient conditions of the future in order to assess the relative impact on the appropriate PG for more durable and resilient pavement construction. In this study, the latest long-term pavement performance (LTPP) model was used to determine the asphalt pavement surface temperatures. For different representative concentration pathways (RCP), the relative impact of climate change on pavement temperature extremes and thereby appropriate PG to meet projected pavement temperatures was assessed using the LTPP models. The results of this study indicate that in the future, climate variations will cause changes to asphalt binder grades across the examined locations in Ontario, which depend on the severity of the projected warming. This research offers useful suggestions that can be incorporated by the road agencies and designers towards adaptation of pavement construction materials suitable to the changing climate.