Structural path and sensitivity analysis of the CO2 emissions in the construction industry

The CO2 emissions in the construction industry contribute considerably to total CO2 emissions in the world. It is of great significance to analyze and reduce the construction CO2 emissions in order to mitigate global warming. However, little literature has studied the paths and sensitivity of construction CO2 emissions collectively. Therefore, this study assesses the structural paths and sensitivity of construction CO2 emissions in China, India, Japan, Russia, and USA in 2015 by applying the multi-regional structural path analysis model and sensitivity analysis model, respectively. The results demonstrate that the structural paths of which producing industries were the domestic electricity, gas and water industry, petroleum, chemical, and non-metallic mineral products industry, construction industry, and transport industry contributed greatly to the construction CO2 emissions in the five regions. The top ten structural paths contributed 44.2%, 54.9%, 41.8%, 63.2%, and 51.3% of the construction CO2 emissions in the five regions, respectively. The direct emissions and “domestic electricity industry→domestic construction industry” were consistently among the most significant three paths in the five regions except for India. The construction CO2 emissions in the five regions were most sensitive to the interrelationship of “domestic petroleum, chemical, and non-metallic mineral products industry→domestic construction industry”. The producing and domestic electricity industries dominated the elasticity of the construction CO2 emissions in the five regions to the most sensitive three interrelationships. This study can provide reference for policymakers to formulate effective policies to mitigate the construction CO2 emissions.