How Would The Potential Collapse Of The Cumbre Vieja Volcano In La Palma Canary Islands Impact The Guadeloupe Islands? Insights Into The Consequences Of Climate Change

Tsunamis are among the deadliest threats to coastal areas as reminded by the recent tragic events in the Indian Ocean in 2004 and in Japan in 2011. A large number of tropical islands are indeed exposed due to their proximity to potential tsunami sources in tectonic subduction zones. For these territories, assessing tsunamis' impact is of major concern for early warning systems and management plans. The effectiveness of inundation predictions relies, among other things, on processes engaged at the scale of the local bathymetry and topography. As part of the project C3AF that aimed to study the consequences of climate change on the French West Indies, we used the numerical model SCHISM to simulate the propagation of several potential tsunamis as well as their impacts on the Guadeloupe islands (French West Indies). Working from the findings of the most recent studies, we used the simulations of four scenarios of collapse of the Cumbre Vieja volcano in La Palma, Canary islands. We then used FUNWAVE-TVD to simulate trans-Atlantic wave propagation until they reached the Guadeloupe archipelago where we used SCHISM to assess their final impact. Inundation is quantified for the whole archipelago and detailed for the most exposed areas. Finally, in a climate change perspective, inundation is compared for different sea levels and degrees of vegetation cover deterioration using modified friction coefficients. We then discuss the results showing that climate change-related factors would amplify the impact more in the case of smaller inundation along with model limitations and assumptions.