The Economic Costs Of Diplomatic Conflict: Evidence From The South Korea China Thaad Dispute

KOREAN ECONOMIC REVIEW(2021)

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摘要
We examine the economic effect of the diplomatic conflict between South Korea and China that resulted from the joint decision by South Korea and the U.S. to deploy the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system in the Korean peninsula. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate the conflict's effects on Chinese tourists to Korea and stock prices of China-related Korean firms. We find that a negative effect on the inflow of tourists appeared with a lag of 3 months after the announcement of the decision and persisted for approximately 18 months. By contrast, the effects on the stockmarket appeared immediately but were insignificant and short-lived.
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关键词
Economic Sanction, Geopolitical Events, Tourism, Stock Market, South Korea, China, Synthetic Control Method
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