Potential genotype-based climate change adaptation strategies for sustaining cotton production in the Texas High Plains: A simulation study

•Future seed cotton yield showed mixed response across the Texas High Plains due to differences in baseline temperature.•Yield and growth benefits from CO2 fertilization were suppressed by increased temperature and water stress.•Future irrigation water use would likely increase due to drier and warmer conditions.•High yielding ideotype showed substantial yield gains under irrigated conditions with marginal increase in water use.•For dryland conditions, the long maturity ideotype simulation resulted in maximum yield gains.