Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion

Aims In the sagebrush ecosystems of the western United States, identifying and enhancing habitat for large ungulates has become an increased priority for many management agencies, as indicated by Department of Interior Secretarial Order 3362. Estimating and understanding current and future habitat suitability and connectivity is important for successful long-term management of these species. Location Great Basin ecoregion, western USA. Methods We focussed on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in the Great Basin ecoregion and used a variety of data sources (GPS telemetry, aerial surveys, observation locations) to develop multi-scale ensemble habitat suitability models for the current and two future time steps (years 2050 and 2070). We also developed dynamic resistant kernels to model pronghorn connectivity. We combined the habitat suitability and connectivity outputs to derive and quantify changes in pronghorn habitat networks through time as well as identify areas that are resilient to climate and land use change. Results We observed a 33.4% decline in highly suitable pronghorn habitat by 2070, assuming a high carbon emission scenario. Patches of suitable habitat reduced in number and size, whilst the distance amongst patches increased, indicating elevated importance of connectivity for pronghorn in the future. Future connectivity decreased to a greater degree than habitat suitability (47.2%-80.0%, depending on the pronghorn movement threshold used). We also found highly suitable habitat (70%) to be more resilient to climate change than areas of connectivity (10%-15%). Main conclusions Our results show a loss of high-quality pronghorn habitat and areas of connectivity with projected climate change. Connectivity was more sensitive than habitat, indicating connectivity may become a limiting factor for pronghorn populations in the Great Basin. These results can help managers prioritize resource investments and conservation efforts in areas most likely to be successful towards long-term pronghorn conservation.