A Socio-Technical Transition Path For New Energy Vehicles In China: A Multi-Level Perspective

The transport sector is a key emitter of greenhouse gasses. We applied socio-technical transition theory and the multi-level perspective (MLP) approach to depict the interplay of three MLP layers (niche, regime, and land-scape) and to project future paths for the transition from traditional (fossil fuel) vehicles to new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China. Specifically, the exogenous context nurtures nascent innovations and restrains the development of traditional fuel vehicles; however, the socio-technical system of NEVs is still in the primary stage and cannot meet the needs of consumers. Under double pressures, the socio-technical system of traditional vehicles is generally stable, but there are factors that impinge on this stability. Four phases are identified according to national plans: the initial pre-development phase (2001-2011) protects nascent innovations; core technologies are developed and market share is expanded in the take-off phase (2012-2020); the acceleration phase (2021-2035) strengthens the trend by encouraging key technological breakthroughs, infrastructure construction, and international cooperation; and the last sprint phase (2036-) further develops the low-carbon transition in China's automobile industry. We also illustrate the essential role of government in the Chinese context. Policy implications related to electric power, technological innovation, and industrial coordination are discussed.