Modelling potential maize yield with climate and crop conditions around flowering

•Crop conditions around flowering are able to explain maize yield response to changes in sowing dates and cultivars.•Early sowing can optimize yields under current climate conditions.•Different yield modelling approaches agree on an average yield reduction of 14 %–17 % in 2041–2060.•Sowing date and cultivar play a limited role in offsetting the negative impacts of climate change on maize yield.