Sugarcane yield future scenarios in Brazil as projected by the APSIM-Sugar model

•Recent APSIM-Sugar features, and locally-derived crop traits, improved model's performance.•Simulations across Brazilian environments based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections were analysed.•Future ensemble projections indicated that cane yields will decline slightly.•Exacerbation of water stress is the main driver of yield losses for rainfed sites.•Projections should be interpreted with caution because uncertainties from climate models are large.