PM2.5 reductions in Chinese cities from 2013 to 2019 remain significant despite the inflating effects of meteorological conditions

Air pollution is a major environmental issue in China and imposes severe health burdens on Chinese citizens. Consequently, China has deployed a series of control measures to mitigate fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, the extent to which these measures have been effective is obscured by the existence of confounding meteorological effects. Here, we use a newly developed reduced-form model that can address emission-driven PM2.5 trends and control for meteorological effects to examine the level of PM2.5 reduction across 367 cities since the introduction of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (the Plan) in 2013. Our findings show that, on average, the national annual mean level of PM2.5 decreased by 34% from 2013 to 2019 after the removal of meteorological effects, about 10% less than the reduction level officially observed. Despite this difference, assuming that current control efforts continue through 2035, the long-term air-quality target of 35 μg/m3 as determined by the recently updated Plan will be met.