Traversing Technology Trajectories

Scholars in science and technology studies, as well as economics and innovation studies, utilize the trajectory metaphor in describing a technology’s maturation. Impetus and purpose may differ, but the trajectory serves as a shared tool for assessing social change either in society at large or within a market sector, a firm, or a discipline. In reverse, the lens of a technology trajectory can be a basis for assessing technology, estimating economic growth, and selecting among plausible product development pathways. Emerging technologies pose a challenge in that the promissory claims that attracted investment may also challenge social safeguards, leading to necessary, but unforeseen hurdles to later technology acceptance. The experiences with biotechnology and nanotechnology demonstrate that knowledge gained in the intervening years was to have tempered exaggerations and addressed the criteria and the responsibilities of those who would later be deciding on product acceptability. In particular, the promissory claim for nanotechnology, unique phenomena, challenged regulatory practice, while claims for biotechnology products were often the fruition of themes found in the educational experience common to both the biotechnology researcher and the regulator. The social science and humanities literature mirrored these points as did the responses of civil society organizations. A prospective trajectory for artificial intelligence is developed using the example of driverless cars and then qualitatively compared to the retrospective trajectories for nanotechnology and biotechnology. Experience with automation, algorithm transparency, and computational modeling of biological mechanisms are identified as pertinent to responsible AI development.