The Horseshoe Abyssal plain Thrust could be the source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami

The southwest Iberia margin is widely believed to have hosted the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and ensuing tsunami, one of the most destructive natural events in European history. Here we combine geophysical data and numerical tsunami modelling to investigate the source and mechanism responsible for this event. We find that an intra-plate, lithospheric¬-scale thrust fault located at the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain coincides with the location and focal mechanisms of the largest regional earthquakes and is likely to have suitable dimensions and fault-rock properties to account for the magnitude of the 1755 event. We present tsunami simulations with this fault as the source, and find that they reproduce reported tsunami energy propagation patterns, arrival-times and run up heights more successfully than other modelled sources. We propose that a reverse dip-slip mechanism on the northwest verging Horseshoe Abyssal plain Thrust, combined with the two-state mechanical behaviour of serpentinite, is the most likely candidate for the source of the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and for other recent large regional earthquakes.