Climate suitability for tourism in China in an era of climate change: a multiscale analysis using holiday climate index

Climate change is increasingly influencing tourism policy and practice and there is a growing need to assess climate risk for destinations and the potential implications for global tourism demand patterns. Climate-dependent tourism markets, such as beach tourism, are particularly sensitive to changes in climate, and understanding the future redistribution of tourism climate resources remains a gap in many world leading tourism regions. This paper presents the first climate change assessment of tourism climate resources in China. The Holiday Climate Index:beach (HCI:beach) and Holiday Climate Index:urban (HCI:urban) are calculated for 775 climate stations across China for the 1981-2010 baseline and mid and late-twenty-first century using projections from six CMIP5 Global Climate Models under low and high emission futures. The projected geographic and seasonal redistribution of tourism climate resources are advantageous for many climate-limited destinations but pose high heat risks for some major city destinations. The differential results for the HCI:beach and HCI:urban reinforce the importance of utilising market-specific indices to assess future climate risk. The results provide new decision-relevant climate information for tourism managers and destination planners throughout China.