Climate change would prevail over land use change in shaping the future distribution of Triturus marmoratus in France

Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change are two major global change factors driving shifts in the location of suitable areas for many species. Here, we assessed if a low-vagility newt, Triturus marmoratus, can track displacement of suitable areas by 2100, and tested whether climate or LULC changes are primary drivers of the species' future distribution. We combined niche modelling with the process-based model simRShift to improve biological relevance and simulate species dispersal by 2100 under scenarios of climate and LULC changes at high spatial resolution. Our results show that T. marmoratus could lose a significant part of its current French range in the coming decades, and that the range loss will primarily be driven by climate change, with LULC change playing a secondary role. The species seems unlikely to be able to track the northern shift of its suitable habitat as rapidly as required given the rate of climate warming during the 21st century. This is due to insufficient dispersal ability, which is compounded by the magnitude of habitat fragmentation in the human-dominated landscape. We highlight the need to assess vulnerability and anticipate threats arising from global change even for species that are not currently considered endangered. We identified areas where the species is most likely to occur and be extinct in the future, which can serve as a guide for population monitoring. Our framework can support conservation strategy development by defining ecological corridors that would assist species to track their required habitats in the face of global change.