Quantitative human risk analysis of 2015 Shenzhen dump failure considering influence of urbanization

With the rapid development of urbanization, a large amount of construction spoil was stockpiled around cities and formed extensive dumps. Construction spoil is one of the main construction and demolition (C&D) waste and municipal solid waste (MSW). Once the construction spoil dump becomes unstable, it will bring great risks to the surrounding residents. A catastrophic dump failure occurred on 20 December 2015 in Guangming New Strict, Shenzhen, China. Approximately 2.51×10 6 m 3 of construction waste slid out from the dumpsite, destroying 33 houses and causing total 77 casualties. This paper attempts to analyze the failure probability of the construction spoil dump using Monte Carlo simulation considering the spatial variability of soil properties, and to quantify the dynamic human risk considering the increasing urbanization. Influence of urbanization on the human element at risk is analyzed by referring to multi-temporal remote sensing images. A quantitative human risk assessment model is employed to determine the landslide human risk referring an assessment criteria curve between frequency of number fatalities and number of fatalities ( F-N curve). It is found that the societal risk at daytime was 0.078, 0.088, and 1.432 in 2002, 2014, and 2015, respectively. Meanwhile, the societal risk at night was 0.034, 0.037, and 0.611 in 2002, 2014, and 2015, respectively. The quantitative method was benchmarked by the other landfill failure. It implies that the human risk increased with the development of urbanization and its value at daytime was approximately twice as much as at night. The new approach for the human risk assessment provides guidance for modern MSW landfills and highlights the obvious influence of urbanization on the human risk in other areas.