Sustainable transition pathways with high penetration of variable renewable energy in the coal-based energy systems

The sustainable transition of an entirely coal-powered energy system is a challenge that can be solved by integrating variable renewable energy sources and considering the synergic effect between energy supply and different sectors of energy consumption. This research shows how the scaling-up in variable renewable energy sources uptake and sector coupling while maintaining high flexibility in thermal power plants can be achieved in a coal-based energy system. The Kosovo energy system is modelled in the EnergyPLAN model as a case study. Appropriate energy transition pathways have been defined to meet the national energy policies by 2030. Five different scenarios that took into account the increase of renewable production capacities, flexible operation of coal-based thermal power plants and sector coupling options for a suitable primary energy mix by 2030 are have been discussed. Significant differences in annualized technology and emission costs can be observed between scenarios. In addition, scenario three seems to be the least cost in comparison to other scenarios. The total CO2 emissions for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 4.78, 5.28, 4.48, 3.97 and 4.95 MtCO2/ year, respectively. In addition, the total annual costs for projected scenarios 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in 2030 accounted for 2168, 1611, 1993, 2479 and 2817 MEUR, respectively.