Agricultural supply response for sunflower in South Africa (1947-2016): The partial Nerlovian framework approach

The study estimates sunflower supply response in South Africa using time series data from 1947 to 2016, modelled through the Nerlovian Partial Adjustment approach. Short- and long-run price elasticities of 0.238 and 0.313 respectively, suggest that farmers do not easily adjust acreage devoted to sunflower given price changes, indicating the influence of other non-price factors. An adjustment coefficient of 0.272 indicates that the time taken to adjust from the actual to the desired acreage level is slow, at 27% per year. The estimated elasticities provide some scope for using price and non-price incentives to influence sunflower production in the long-run. This could facilitate decision-making by sunflower producers to spearhead internal and external adjustment processes. The study contributes to a growing body of literature on agricultural supply response determinants, thus providing evidence-based macro-economic tools towards agricultural policy-making and reform process.