Projections of soil loss by water erosion in Europe by 2050

Panos Panagos,Cristiano Ballabio,Mihaly Himics,Simone Scarpa,Francis Matthews,Mariia Bogonos,Jean Poesen,Pasquale Borrelli

Environmental Science & Policy（2021）

Cited 84|Views10

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Abstract

•Soil loss by water erosion is projected to increase by 13–22.5 % in EU and UK by 2050.•The main driver for the projected increase of water erosion is rainfall erosivity.•19 Global Climate Models for 3 RCPs(2.6,4.5,8.5) estimate an erosivity +15.7–25.5 %.•Land use dynamics have a small positive effect (c.a. 3%) in erosion mitigation.•Effective future erosion mitigation requires policy measures for soil conservation.

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Key words

Climate change,Agriculture,Soil health,Policy,Land use change,Soil conservation

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