An Evaporation Duct Prediction Model Based On The Mm5

This paper introduces the flux profile relations of Zhang and Hu, namely the nonlinear factor alpha(v), and the gust wind item w(g) into the Babin model, and thus extends the evaporation duct diagnosis model based on the Babin model to the offshore coast under extremely low wind speed. In addition, an evaporation duct prediction model is designed and coupled with the fifth generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The tower observational data and radar data at the Ping tan island of Fujian Province on May 25-26, 2002 are used to validate the forecast results. The outputs of the prediction model agree with the observations from 0 to 48 hours. The error of t he predicted evaporation duct height is 0.193 and the prediction results are in accordance with the radar detection.