Analysing The Spatial Urban Growth Pattern By Using Logistic Regression In Didim District

Describing and quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion in developing countries play a crucial role in determining the mechanisms of urban growth and decision making processes. The aim of this study is to detect urban expansion in the Diclim district of Aydin, and to quantify the spatiotemporal characteristics of the urbanisation pattern. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) remote sensing images were used to perform a post-classification change detection approach in order to determine land use/cover change between 1984 and 2010. Following this, taking into account the results of land use/cover change analysis, a set of predictor variables selected a priori based on previous studies and the current knowledge of the urbanisation processes in the study area. In order to analyse the relationship of urban growth pattern and the driving forces between 1984 and 2010, a logistic regression model is used. Finally, a probability of the urban growth surface map is generated to provide a comprehensible scenario for urban growth patterns. This analysis was expected to produce a general picture of urban growth patterns to support decision making. While the results showed that there is a significant increase (321.81%) in the amount of urban areas, the main driver of urban growth was found.