Modelling Of Deep Mining Induced Seismicity For Hazard Estimation

Mining engineers must certify that the capacity of excavations in their mine exceeds the expected demand. This requires the engineer to satisfactorily estimate the expected future loads that an excavation will be subjected to, as well as the capacity of the rock mass-ground support system. In seismically active mines, this essential task is more difficult as high rates of deformation and dynamic loading are still comparatively infrequent events and the simulation of support and reinforcement for dynamic loading is more complex. Empirical methods of estimating excavation capacity for dynamic rock related hazards are also very poorly evolved, and have limited efficacy. In this paper, computational forecasting of potential for dynamic deformation in rock masses surrounding mines as well as the simulation of potential large events themselves is discussed.