Quantifying The Impact Of Climate Variability And Human Activities On The Streamflow Of The Qingzhang River

Environmental change is the main factor leading to the disturbance of hydrological processes in the basin, the evaluation of which is of great importance to the formulation of water resources planning and management strategies. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt test were used to diagnose the variation trend and abrupt change of runoff time series of Kuangmenkou station. Based on hydrological and meteorological data, the VIC model was setup to simulate runoff processes. The influence of environmental change on annual runoff was quantified during different human activity period. The results showed that the runoff of the Shizhandao station presented a decreasing trend, and the abrupt change year appeared in 1978. Based on the abrupt change year the study period was divided into runoff base period from 1959 to 1978 and change period from 1979 to 2015. The model has a high applicability to the research area, and the Nash-sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and relative error both meet the requirements of the model of more than 0.80 and less than 10%. During 1979-2015, the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction are 79.8%, and 20.2%, respectively. Human activities are the main driving force of runoff change of Kuamgmenkou station.