The changes in spatial layout of steel industry in China and associated pollutant emissions: A case of SO2

The spatial layout of the steel industry has an impact on the regional atmospheric environment. In this study, the steel industry evolution model and the driving force analysis model were combined to analyze the evolution of spatial layout of the steel industry in China and the driving factors of this evolution. In addition, the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ model was used to analyze the spatial dynamics of SO2 emissions from the steel industry. Our analysis presents the evolution of the steel industry in China in four stages: policy-determining, resource-oriented, economic promotion and market-oriented stage. The change in the spatial layout of the Chinese steel industry resulted in a continuously decreasing trend of pollutants in temporal characteristics and a decreasing share of emissions in North China and a continuous growth in East China in spatial characteristics. Our simulation shows that, by 2025, the pollutant SO2 emission concentration will migrate to the southeast, subject to market-oriented factors.