Prevalence of High Liver Stiffness and a Screening Strategy Using the SODA-2B Score Among US Adults

Cirrhosis, a rising cause of death in the United States, has an extended preclinical phase characterized by progressive liver fibrosis. Despite the developments in noninvasive fibrosis measurement, there is no recommended screening, in part due to an incomplete understanding of the disease epidemiology on a national scale. Herein, we aim to define the prevalence of liver fibrosis and compare strategies to identify the at-risk population. We analyzed 4,510 US adults with complete liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) in the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate the disease burden of increased liver stiffness. An estimated 11.6 million (95% confidence interval [C.I.], 8.1-15.0 million) US adults had LSM >= 9.5 kPa, indicating advanced fibrosis and representing 1 in every 18 adults. Among them, 7.1 million (95% CI, 5.0-9.1 million) had LSM >= 12.5 kPa, which is concerning for cirrhosis. LSM >= 9.5 kPa is associated with male sex (S), history of other liver diseases (O), diabetes (D), advanced age (A), and an elevated BMI (B). A simple SODA-2B score had a sensitivity of 96.4% in identifying individuals at risk for advanced cirrhosis (LSM >= 9.5 kPa) and a negative predictive value of 99.3% in stratifying more than half of the adult population. When the liver function test (LFT) is available, the inclusion of abnormal LFT and elevated fibrosis-4 index can further increase screening efficiency. Conclusion: Elevated liver stiffness is prevalent among US adults. A SODA-2B score can risk stratify adults for VCTE-based fibrosis screening.