COVID-19 pandemic and waiting times in outpatient specialist care in Germany: an empirical analysis

Background International healthcare systems face the challenge that waiting times may create barriers to accessing medical care, and that those barriers are unequally distributed between different patient groups. The disruption of healthcare systems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate this already strained demand situation. Using the German healthcare system as an example, this study aims to analyze potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on waiting times for outpatient specialist care and to evaluate differences between individual patient groups based on their respective insurance status and the level of supply. Methods We conducted an experiment in which we requested appointments by telephone for different insurance statuses in regions with varying levels of supply from 908 outpatient specialist practices in Germany before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from 589 collected appointments were analyzed using a linear mixed effect model. Results The data analysis revealed two main counteracting effects. First, the average waiting time has decreased for both patients with statutory (mandatory public health insurance) and private health insurance. Inequalities in access to healthcare, however, remained and were based on patients’ insurance status and the regional level of supply. Second, the probability of not receiving an appointment at all significantly increased during the pandemic. Conclusions Patient uncertainty due to the fear of a potential COVID-19 infection may have freed up capacities in physicians’ practices, resulting in a reduction of waiting times. At the same time, the exceptional situation caused by the pandemic may have led to uncertainty among physicians, who might thus have allocated appointments less frequently. To avoid worse health outcomes in the long term due to a lack of physician visits, policymakers and healthcare providers should focus more on regular care in the current COVID-19 pandemic.