Bayesian based lifetime prediction for high-power white LEDs

•Traditional NLS regression-based standards showed higher prediction inaccuracy.•Accelerated degradation test designed to collect lumen degradation data for LEDs.•A probabilistic estimation of model parameters with a Bayesian method is presented.•Applied on two case studies of LED packages and lamps to validate proposed method.•Proposed method showed an improved accuracy compared with TM-21 and TM-28 methods.