Real-time prediction model of cVDPV2 outbreaks to aid outbreak response vaccination strategies.

As type 2 immunity continues to decline following the cessation of tOPV in 2016, outbreak responses to new cVDPV2 detections will need to be faster and larger in scope. We provide a framework that can be used to support decisions on the appropriate size of a vaccination response when new detections are identified. While the model does not account for all relevant local factors that must be considered in the overall vaccination response, it enables a quantitative basis for outbreak response size.