Development And Validation Of A Risk Nomogram Model For Predicting Revascularization After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention In Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome

Objective: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is one of the most effective treatments for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, the need for postoperative revascularization remains a major problem in PCI. This study was to develop and validate a nomogram for prediction of revascularization after PCI in patients with ACS.Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted using data from 1083 patients who underwent PCI (>= 6 months) at a single center from June 2013 to December 2019. They were divided into training (70%; n = 758) and validation (30%; n = 325) sets. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a predictive model represented by a nomogram. The nomogram was developed and evaluated based on discrimination, calibra-tion, and clinical efficacy using the concordance statistic (C-statistic), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA), respectively.Results: The nomogram was comprised of ten variables: follow-up time (odds ratio (OR): 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.03), history of diabetes mellitus (OR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.25-2.69), serum creatinine level on admission (OR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.98-1.00), serum uric acid level on admission (OR: 1.005; 95% CI: 1.002-1.007), lipoprotein-a level on admission (OR: 1.0021; 95% CI: 1.0013-1.0029), low density lipoprotein cholesterol level on re-admission (OR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.10-0.47), the presence of chronic total occlusion (OR: 3.30; 95% CI: 1.93-5.80), the presence of multivessel disease (OR: 4.48; 95% CI: 2.85-7.28), the presence of calcified lesions (OR: 1.63; 95% CI: 1.11-2.39), and the presence of bifurcation lesions (OR: 1.82; 95% CI: 1.20-2.77). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for the training and validation sets were 0.765 (95% CI: 0.732- 0.799) and 0.791 (95% CI: 0.742-0.830), respectively. The calibration plots showed good agreement between prediction and observation in both the training and validation sets. DCA also demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.Conclusion: We developed an easy-to-use nomogram model to predict the risk of revascu-larization after PCI in patients with ACS. The nomogram may provide useful assessment of risk for subsequent treatment of ACS patients undergoing PCI.