Peripheral biomarkers to predict the diagnosis of bipolar disorder from major depressive disorder in adolescents

The onset of bipolar disorder (BD) occurs in childhood or adolescence in half of the patients. Early stages of BD usually present depressive episodes, which makes it difficult to be distinguished from major depressive disorder (MDD). Objective biomarkers for discriminating BD from MDD in adolescent patients are limited. We collected basic demographic data and the information of the first blood examination performed after the admission to psychiatry unit of BD and MDD inpatients during 2009–2018. We recruited 261 adolescents (aged from 10 to 18), including 160 MDD and 101 BD. Forward-Stepwise Selection of binary logistic regression was used to construct predictive models for the total sample and subgroups by gender. Independent external validation was made by 255 matched patients from another hospital in China. Regression models of total adolescents, male and female subgroups showed accuracy of 73.3%, 70.6% and 75.2%, with area under curves (AUC) as 0.785, 0.816 and 0.793, respectively. Age, direct bilirubin (DBIL), lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), free triiodothyronine (FT3) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were final factors included into the models. The discrimination was well at external validation (AUC = 0.714). This study offers the evidence that accessible information of common clinical laboratory examination might be valuable in distinguishing BD form MDD in adolescents. With good diagnostic accuracies and external validation, the total regression equation might potentially be applied to individualized clinical inferences on adolescent BD patients.