DeepExpress: Heterogeneous and Coupled Sequence Modeling for Express Delivery Prediction

AbstractThe prediction of express delivery sequence, i.e., modeling and estimating the volumes of daily incoming and outgoing parcels for delivery, is critical for online business, logistics, and positive customer experience, and specifically for resource allocation optimization and promotional activity arrangement. A precise estimate of consumer delivery requests has to involve sequential factors such as shopping behaviors, weather conditions, events, business campaigns, and their couplings. Despite that various methods have integrated external features to enhance the effects, extant works fail to address complex feature-sequence couplings in the following aspects: weaken the inter-dependencies when processing heterogeneous data and ignore the cumulative and evolving situation of coupling relationships. To address these issues, we propose DeepExpress—a deep-learning-based express delivery sequence prediction model, which extends the classic seq2seq framework to learn feature-sequence couplings. DeepExpress leverages an express delivery seq2seq learning, a carefully designed heterogeneous feature representation, and a novel joint training attention mechanism to adaptively handle heterogeneity issues and capture feature-sequence couplings for accurate prediction. Experimental results on real-world data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms both shallow and deep baseline models.