An Effective Classification-Based Framework for Predicting Cloud Capacity Demand in Cloud Services

The rapid development of pay-as-you-go cloud services motivates the increasing number of cloud resource demands. However, the volatile demands bring new challenges for current techniques to minimize the cost of cloud capacity planning and VM provisioning while satisfying the customer demands. The service vendors will incur enormous revenue loss within the long-term inappropriate planning, especially when the demands fluctuate abruptly and frequently. In this paper, we cast the cloud capacity planning as a classification problem and propose an integrated framework, which effectively predicts the abrupt changing demands, to reduce the cost of cloud resource provisioning. In this framework, we first apply Piecewise Linear Representation to segment the time series of cloud resource demands for labeling the changing trend of each period. Second, Weighted SVM is leveraged to fit the statistical information and the label of each period and predict the changing trend of the following period. Finally, an incremental learning strategy is utilized to ensure the low cost of updating the model using the upcoming requests. We evaluate our framework on the IBM Smart Cloud Enterprise (SCE) trace data and the experimental results show the effectiveness of our proposed framework.