The 5-Year Course of Neck Pain Among Natural Disaster Survivors: The Association of Prior Neck Pain with New Episodes of Neck Pain

Objective Neck pain is a common health problem among both the general population and natural disaster survivors. However, the long-term course of neck pain has rarely been reported. The aim of this study was to elucidate the 5-year course of neck pain among survivors of the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) by assessing the association of neck pain 2 and 4 years after the disaster with that at 7 years. Study design Longitudinal study. Methods A panel study was conducted on GEJE survivors (n = 1,821) through the administration of a self-reported questionnaire at 2 (first time point), 4 (second time point), and 7 years (third time point) after the disaster. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between prior neck pain and subsequent neck pain. Results The rates of neck pain at the first, second, and third time points were 20.7%, 21.1%, and 20.1%, respectively. Neck pain at the first time point was significantly associated with neck pain at the third time point (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 5.96 [4.53-7.83]). Furthermore, neck pain at the first and second time points was significantly associated with neck pain at the third time point (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 5.71 [4.19-7.78] for neck pain at either time point; 15.94 [10.99-23.12] for neck pain at both time points; P for trend <0.001). Conclusions Prior neck pain was significantly associated with neck pain 5 years later, and the effect was stronger with an increase of prior neck pain episodes. Clinicians should base their selection of treatment method on an individual's history of neck pain.