Distribution of COPD Comorbidities and Creation of Acute Exacerbation Risk Score: Results from SCICP.

BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often coexists with multiple comorbidities which may have a significant impact on acute exacerbations of patients. At present, what kind of comorbidities affects acute exacerbations and how comorbidities lead to poor prognosis are still controversial. The purpose of our study is to determine the impact of comorbidities on COPD exacerbation and establish an acute exacerbation risk assessment system related to comorbidities. METHODS:A total of 742 COPD patients participated in the Shanghai COPD Investigation on Comorbidity Program (SCICP, ChiCTR2000030911). Finally, the baseline information of 415 participants and one-year follow-up data were involved in the analysis. We collected hemogram indices, pulmonary function tests and acute exacerbation of COPD with regular medical follow-up. Q-type cluster analysis was used to determine the clusters of participants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was constructed to assess the ability of indicators in predicting acute exacerbations. RESULTS:Almost 65% of the population we investigated had at least one comorbidity. The distribution and incidence of comorbidities differed between exacerbation group and non-exacerbation group. Three comorbidity clusters were identified: (1) respiratory, metabolic, immune and psychologic disease (non-severe cases); (2) cardiovascular and neoplastic disease (severe cases); (3) less comorbidity. Different sub-phenotypes of COPD patients showed significant distinction in health status. Anxiety (OR=5.936, P=0.001), angina (OR=10.155, P=0.025) and hypertension (OR=3.142, P=0.001) were found to be independent risk factors of exacerbation in a year. The novel risk score containing BODEx and four diseases showed great prognostic value of COPD exacerbation in developing sample. CONCLUSION:Our study detailed the major interaction between comorbidities and exacerbation in COPD. Noteworthily, a novel risk score using comprehensive index - BODEx - and comorbidity parameters can identify patients at high risk of acute exacerbation.