Sites of Distant Metastases and Cancer-Specific Survival in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm With Associated Invasive Carcinoma: A Study of 1,178 Patients.

BACKGROUND:To explore the impact of distant metastases on cancer-specific survival in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) with associated invasive carcinoma and identify the risk factor of distant metastases in IPMN with associated invasive carcinoma. METHODS:Patients with IPMN with associated invasive carcinoma between 2010 and 2015 were retrospectively selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The survival analyses were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses and log-rank test. The impact of distant metastases was evaluated by Cox regression model and the risk factors of distant metastases were identified by logistic regression analyses, respectively. RESULTS:The median cancer-specific survival time of patients with no metastases, isolated liver, isolated lung, and multiple site metastases were 19 months, 4 months, 7 months, and 3 months, respectively. In patients with isolated liver metastases, multivariate analysis after adjustment indicated that chemotherapy (Hazard Ratio [HR]=0.351, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.256-0.481, P<0.001) was a protective prognostic factor for cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with isolated liver metastases. In isolated lung metastases subgroup, old age (HR=1.715, 95% CI=1.037-2.838, P=0.036) and chemotherapy (HR=0.242, 95% CI=0.134-0.435, P<0.001) were related to CSS in multivariable Cox regression analysis(P<0.05). Tumor located in the pancreatic body/tail (HR=2.239, 95% CI=1.140-4.400, P=0.019) and chemotherapy (HR=0.191, 95% CI=0.108-0.340, P<0.001) were independent prognostic factors for CSS in patients with multiple metastases. Finally, a nomogram was constructed for cancer-specific survival and the predicted C-index was 0.780 (95% CI=0.762-0.798). CONCLUSION:The liver is the most common site of distant metastases in IPMN with associated invasive carcinoma. Tumor located in the pancreatic body/tail and chemotherapy are independent prognostic factors for CSS in patients with multiple metastases. Further, tumor located in body/tail is identified as a risk factor of distant metastases.