Would Your Tweet Invoke Hate on the Fly? Forecasting Hate Intensity of Reply Threads on Twitter

ABSTRACTCurbing hate speech is undoubtedly a major challenge for online microblogging platforms like Twitter. While there have been studies around hate speech detection, it is not clear how hate speech finds its way into an online discussion. It is important for a content moderator to not only identify which tweet is hateful but also to predict which tweet will be responsible for accumulating hate speech. This would help in prioritizing tweets that need constant monitoring. Our analysis reveals that for hate speech to manifest in an ongoing discussion, the source tweet may not necessarily be hateful; rather, there are plenty of such non-hateful tweets which gradually invoke hateful replies, resulting in the entire reply threads becoming provocative. In this paper, we define a novel problem -- given a source tweet and a few of its initial replies, the task is to forecast the hate intensity of upcoming replies. To this end, we curate a novel dataset constituting approx. 4.5k contemporary tweets and their entire reply threads. Our preliminary analysis confirms that the evolution patterns along time of hate intensity among reply threads have highly diverse patterns, and there is no significant correlation between the hate intensity of the source tweets and that of their reply threads. We employ seven state-of-the-art dynamic models (either statistical signal processing or deep learning-based) and show that they fail badly to forecast the hate intensity. We then propose DESSERT, a novel deep state-space model that leverages the function approximation capability of deep neural networks with the capacity to quantify the uncertainty of statistical signal processing models. Exhaustive experiments and ablation study show that DESSERT outperforms all the baselines substantially. Further, its deployment in an advanced AI platform designed to monitor real-world problematic hateful content has improved the aggregated insights extracted for countering the spread of online harms.