SEIR Subregion Model Analysis: a Case Study of Curitiba

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was identified first in December of 2019, in Wuhan City, China. In a short period, thousands of infectious cases were reported in the world, and the hospital capacity was exceeded or saturated in some countries. For this reason, mathematical models were largely proposed to estimate the progression of Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on decisions to mitigate this progression. This paper proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (SEIR) model to describe the behavior of the Covid-19 epidemic, based on characteristics of subregions. It was applied in data of the city of Curitiba, Brazil, and showed the best and worst scenarios to estimate the saturate and exceeded states on the health system.