Effects of ambient temperature and fall-related injuries in Ma’anshan, Anhui Province, China: a distributed lag nonlinear analysis

Despite the significant economic cost of falls and injuries to individuals and communities, little is known about the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of fall-related injuries (FRIs). Therefore, a time-series study was conducted to explore the effects of meteorological factors on FRIs in Ma’anshan City, East China. Injury data from 2011 to 2017 were collected from the National Injury Monitoring Station in Ma’anshan City. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used in this study to evaluate the correlation between ambient temperature and fall injuries. The results showed a significant exposure-response relationship between temperature and FRIs in Ma’anshan City. The high temperatures increased the risk of FRIs (RR = 1.110; 95% CI, 1.005–1.225; lag 0). The lag effect appeared at lag 10 (RR = 1.032; 95% CI, 1.003–1.063), and then gradually remained stable after lag 25 (RR = 1.077; 95% CI, 1.045–1.110). The effect of ambient temperature varied with age and gender. The lag effect of high temperature appeared in the male group after lag 15 (RR = 1.042; 95% CI, 1.006–1.079). In contrast, the effect of the female group appeared for the first time at lag 0 (RR = 1.187; 95% CI, 1.042–1.352). And the ≥ 60 years subgroup seemed to be more sensitive in low temperature (RR = 1.017; 95% CI, 1.004–1.031; lag 0; RR = 1.003; 95% CI, 1.000–1.007; lag 25). The cumulative result is similar to the single-day effect. From the results, this study would help the establishment of fall-related injury prediction and provide evidence for the formulation and implementation of preventive strategies and measures in the future.