Behaviors in kindergarten are associated with trajectories of long-term welfare receipt: A 30-year population-based study

This study examines the link between behavior in kindergarten and adult-life welfare receipt. Teacher-rated behavioral assessments were obtained for inattention, hyperactivity, aggression-opposition, anxiety, and prosociality when children (n=2960) were aged 5-6 years and linked to their tax return records from age 18-35 years. We used group-based based trajectory modeling to identify distinct trajectories of welfare receipt and multinomial logistic regression models to examine the association between behaviors and trajectory group membership. The child's sex, IQ, and family background were adjusted for. Four trajectories of welfare receipt were identified: low (n = 2,390, 80.7%), declining (n = 260, 8.8%), rising (n = 150, 5.2%), and chronic (n = 160, 5.4%). Relative to the low trajectory, inattention and aggression-opposition at age 6 years were associated with increased risk of following a declining, rising, and chronic trajectory of welfare receipt, independent of hyperactivity and anxiety. Prosocial behaviors were independently associated with a lower risk of following a chronic trajectory. This study shows that kindergarten children exhibiting high inattention and aggression-opposition and low prosocial behaviors may be at increased risk of long-term welfare receipt in adulthood. The implications for early screening, monitoring, and prevention are discussed.