Hydrometeorological drivers of flood characteristics in the Brahmaputra river basin in Bangladesh

Abstract. While flooding is an annual occurrence in the Brahmaputra basin during the South Asian summer monsoon, there is large variability in the flood characteristics that drive risk: flood duration, rate of water level rise and peak water level. The aim of this study is to understand the key hydrometeorological drivers influencing these flood characteristics. We analyse hydrometeorological time series of the last 33 years to understand flood dynamics focusing on three extraordinary floods in 1998 (long duration), 2017 (rapid rise) and 2019 (high water level). We find that long duration floods in the basin have been driven by basin-wide seasonal rainfall extremes associated with the development phase of strong La Niña events, whereas floods with a rapid rate of rise have been driven by more localized rainfall falling in a hydrological ‘sweet spot’ that leads to a concurrent contribution from the tributaries into the main stem of the river. We find that recent record high water levels are not coincident with extreme river flows, hinting that sedimentation and morphological changes are also important drivers of flood risk that should be further investigated. Understanding these drivers is essential for flood forecasting and early warning and also to study the impact of future climate change on flood.