Informing The Global Covid-19 Response By Estimating Excess Deaths In Italy During The Covid-19 And 1918 Influenza Pandemics

We compared all-cause mortality in Italy July- December 1918 and January- June 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemics peaks occurred, using publicly available data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. From July to December 1918, Italy reported 385.95 deaths x 100,000 persons. From January to June of 2020, there were 97.93 deaths x 100,000 persons. The overall monthly mortality rate ratio in 1918 was 2.56 (95% CI: 2.55-2.57), in 2020 was 1.12 (95% CI: 1.12-1.13). Results indicate that Italy\u0027s measures have worked and should be used as model by other countries in anticipation of further waves. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.