Baseline Model for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning for The Philippines: A Leap Model Application

Philippines is one of the fastest-growing economies and most populated countries globally, greatly affecting its energy demand. The increase in demand leads to an increase in the electricity generation sector's capacity to maintain the supply-demand balance. Thus, this may lead to power shortage, high generation costs, and increased greenhouse gas emissions without proper energy planning. This study aims to create a Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-based Baseline Model for the Philippines' generation expansion planning. The model will serve as a tool for the government and energy planners to develop a long-term generation expansion planning model. The model simulates the technological, economic and environmental aspect of the existing Philippine power generation system that can be used as a baseline for developing a Business-As-Usual Scenario and Alternative Scenario models to assess different energy policy pathways. The developed LEAP model following an independent multi-regional and national scale structure that is based on the Philippine grid and off-grid based regions showed an accurate result with the actual data. The model was able to replicate the actual power generation through the set-up of basic parameters. Development of Philippine LEAP structure; and the establishment of the demand, transformation, and resources module’s structure are based on the set of data input parameters.  The baseline model developed can be used for continuing studies such as impact evaluation of energy policy for long term power generation expansion planning.