Dynamic response to climate change in the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana in western Tien Shan, China

Forests are important ecosystems for economic and social development. However, the response of tree radial growth to climate has produced ‘divergent problems’ at high latitudes under global warming. In this study, the response stability and trend of Picea schrenkiana radial growth to variability in climate factors were analyzed in the mid-latitudes of the western Tien Shan Mountains. Radial growth of P. schrenkiana was mainly limited by minimum and mean temperatures. The divergent responses of radial growth occurred in response to the minimum and mean temperatures at the beginning of the growing season (April–May) of the current year, but responses to drought occurred in July–September of the previous year. And the mean and minimum temperatures in June–September of the current year were both stable. Radial growth first increased and then decreased according to the basal area increment, with a gradual increase in temperature. Therefore, forest ecosystems in mountainous arid areas will be increasingly affected by future climate warming.