Matching research and practice: Prediction of individual patient progress and dropout risk for basic routine outcome monitoring

Objective Despite evidence showing that systematic outcome monitoring can prevent treatment failure, the practical conditions that allow for implementation are seldom met in naturalistic psychological services. In the context of limited time and resources, session-by-session evaluation is rare in most clinical settings. This study aimed to validate innovative prediction methods for individual treatment progress and dropout risk based on basic outcome monitoring. Methods Routine data of a naturalistic psychotherapy outpatient sample were analyzed (N = 3902). Patients were treated with cognitive behavioral therapy with up to 95 sessions (M = 39.19, SD = 16.99) and assessment intervals of 5-15 sessions. Treatment progress and dropout risk were predicted in two independent analyses using the nearest neighbor method and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, respectively. Results The correlation between observed and predicted patient progress was r = .46. Intrinsic treatment motivation, previous inpatient treatment, university-entrance qualification, baseline impairment, diagnosed personality disorder, and diagnosed eating disorder were identified as significant predictors of dropout, explaining 11% of variance. Conclusions Innovative outcome prediction in naturalistic psychotherapy is not limited to elaborated progress monitoring. This study demonstrates a reasonable approach for tracking patient progress as long as session-by-session assessment is not a valid standard.